Decentralized E-Government Adoption in Iraqi Higher Education: An Empirical Validation of an Integrated TOE–TAM Model Using PLS-SEM and a Supplementary Machine Learning Analysis
Keywords:
e-government; PLS-SEM; TOE–TAM; machine learning; higher education; Iraq; decentralizationAbstract
Governments increasingly rely on electronic government (e-government) systems to improve the efficiency, accessibility, and transparency of public services, yet adoption within Iraq's higher education sector remains limited by centralized governance, weak information and communication technology (ICT) infrastructure, and low institutional trust. Building on an integrated Technology-Organization-Environment (TOE) and Technology Acceptance Model (TAM) framework developed in prior conceptual work, this study empirically tests eight hypothesized relationships between technological (IT skills, technical support, technological infrastructure), environmental (rules and regulations, awareness, culture), and governmental (trust in government, quality of information) factors and the use of decentralized e-government systems in Iraqi public universities. A structured, five-point Likert questionnaire was distributed to academic and administrative staff at five public universities in Iraq's Middle Euphrates region: Baghdad, Mosul, Babylon, Al-Qadisiyah, and Al-Muthanna. From a population of 994, a sample of 278 valid responses was obtained (79.4% usable response rate) following Krejcie and Morgan's (1970) sample-size guidelines. Data were analyzed using Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modeling (PLS-SEM) in SmartPLS, with construct reliability, validity, and path significance assessed via bootstrapping (1,000 resamples). All eight hypothesized paths were statistically significant (p < .001), and the model explained 73.7% of the variance in e-government use. As a methodological robustness check, a supplementary machine-learning analysis (linear regression and Random Forest) was additionally run on a simulated dataset calibrated to the study's published statistics; this exploratory analysis independently corroborated a positive, predictable relationship between the eight constructs and e-government use. Together, the findings provide strong empirical support for the integrated TOE–TAM framework and offer Iraqi policymakers and university leaders an evidence-based basis for prioritizing investment across technological, environmental, and governmental dimensions of digital governance reform
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